World Cup Team First Goal

KXWCTEAMFIRSTGOAL · Sports

527 events1,382 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 42¢ resolved YES 32.7% of the time (k=87).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 93¢ resolved YES 39.8% of the time (k=83).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢5.5% actually happened

avg price 3.9%175 events834 snapshots

10–19¢7.1% actually happened

avg price 13.9%119 events252 snapshots

20–29¢11.1% actually happened

avg price 23.8%63 events90 snapshots

30–39¢22.9% actually happened

avg price 33.9%41 events48 snapshots

40–49¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 43.5%21 events24 snapshots

50–59¢50.0% actually happened

avg price 52.3%16 events16 snapshots

60–69¢50.0% actually happened

avg price 63.3%9 events10 snapshots

70–79¢41.7% actually happened

avg price 75.3%10 events12 snapshots

80–89¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 83.5%6 events6 snapshots

90–99¢37.8% actually happened

avg price 95.6%67 events90 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢3.9%5.5%175834

10–19¢13.9%7.1%119252

20–29¢23.8%11.1%6390

30–39¢33.9%22.9%4148

40–49¢43.5%33.3%2124

50–59¢52.3%50.0%1616

60–69¢63.3%50.0%910

70–79¢75.3%41.7%1012

80–89¢83.5%66.7%66

90–99¢95.6%37.8%6790