← All series

World Cup Team First Goal

KXWCTEAMFIRSTGOAL · Sports
527 events1,382 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.
Contracts averaging 42¢ resolved YES 32.7% of the time (k=87).
“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.
Contracts averaging 93¢ resolved YES 39.8% of the time (k=83).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢5.5% actually happened
avg price 3.9%175 events834 snapshots
10–19¢7.1% actually happened
avg price 13.9%119 events252 snapshots
20–29¢11.1% actually happened
avg price 23.8%63 events90 snapshots
30–39¢22.9% actually happened
avg price 33.9%41 events48 snapshots
40–49¢33.3% actually happened
avg price 43.5%21 events24 snapshots
50–59¢50.0% actually happened
avg price 52.3%16 events16 snapshots
60–69¢50.0% actually happened
avg price 63.3%9 events10 snapshots
70–79¢41.7% actually happened
avg price 75.3%10 events12 snapshots
80–89¢66.7% actually happened
avg price 83.5%6 events6 snapshots
90–99¢37.8% actually happened
avg price 95.6%67 events90 snapshots