We recorded the price of every settled Kalshi market at three moments before it closed, then checked what really happened. This is the answer, by category and horizon.
Every dot groups thousands of markets by price. The dashed line is where dots land if prices tell the truth — dots below it mean buyers overpaid at that price. Dot size shows how many separate events are behind it.
Bet $100 on final-hour weather longshots and history paid back about $5 — roughly 12× overpriced.
Buying both sides of a match costs ~101¢ per guaranteed 100¢ — about a quarter of a sportsbook's cut.
“Sure thing” favorites priced at 95¢ the night before resolve just 90.7% of the time.