World Cup Country First Goal

KXWCTEAM1STGOAL · Sports

101 events115 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 89¢ resolved YES 46.2% of the time (k=36).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 2.6%8 events15 snapshots

10–19¢10.0% actually happened

avg price 12.2%8 events10 snapshots

20–29¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 20.0%3 events3 snapshots

30–39¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 30.0%2 events2 snapshots

40–49¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 49.0%1 events1 snapshots

50–59¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 51.0%1 events1 snapshots

60–69¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 60.0%1 events1 snapshots

70–79¢20.0% actually happened

avg price 76.6%5 events5 snapshots

80–89¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 80.0%11 events13 snapshots

90–99¢81.0% actually happened

avg price 97.9%20 events21 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.6%0.0%815

10–19¢12.2%10.0%810

20–29¢20.0%0.0%33

30–39¢30.0%0.0%22

40–49¢49.0%100.0%11

50–59¢51.0%0.0%11

60–69¢60.0%0.0%11

70–79¢76.6%20.0%55

80–89¢80.0%0.0%1113

90–99¢97.9%81.0%2021