World Cup Country First Goal

KXWCTEAM1STGOAL · Sports

101 events115 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 89¢ resolved YES 46.2% of the time (k=36).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.6%0.0%815

10–19¢12.2%10.0%810

20–29¢20.0%0.0%33

30–39¢30.0%0.0%22

40–49¢49.0%100.0%11

50–59¢51.0%0.0%11

60–69¢60.0%0.0%11

70–79¢76.6%20.0%55

80–89¢80.0%0.0%1113

90–99¢97.9%81.0%2021