World Cup Stage of Elimination

KXWCSTAGEOFELIM · Sports

436 events892 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 92¢ resolved YES 97.0% of the time (k=33).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 1.9%48 events230 snapshots

10–19¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 14.6%15 events18 snapshots

20–29¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 25.6%13 events14 snapshots

30–39¢22.2% actually happened

avg price 34.0%7 events9 snapshots

40–49¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 43.7%6 events6 snapshots

50–59¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 53.8%6 events6 snapshots

60–69¢75.0% actually happened

avg price 64.4%8 events8 snapshots

70–79¢83.3% actually happened

avg price 75.0%6 events6 snapshots

80–89¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 84.0%5 events5 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 98.1%22 events22 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.9%0.0%48230

10–19¢14.6%0.0%1518

20–29¢25.6%0.0%1314

30–39¢34.0%22.2%79

40–49¢43.7%33.3%66

50–59¢53.8%33.3%66

60–69¢64.4%75.0%88

70–79¢75.0%83.3%66

80–89¢84.0%100.0%55

90–99¢98.1%100.0%2222