World Cup Stage of Elimination

KXWCSTAGEOFELIM · Sports

436 events892 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 92¢ resolved YES 97.0% of the time (k=33).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.9%0.0%48230

10–19¢14.6%0.0%1518

20–29¢25.6%0.0%1314

30–39¢34.0%22.2%79

40–49¢43.7%33.3%66

50–59¢53.8%33.3%66

60–69¢64.4%75.0%88

70–79¢75.0%83.3%66

80–89¢84.0%100.0%55

90–99¢98.1%100.0%2222