World Cup Spread

KXWCSPREAD · Sports

760 events1,130 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢1.8% actually happened

avg price 2.9%100 events281 snapshots

10–19¢11.9% actually happened

avg price 14.1%61 events67 snapshots

20–29¢25.7% actually happened

avg price 24.4%34 events35 snapshots

30–39¢31.8% actually happened

avg price 35.0%21 events22 snapshots

40–49¢45.0% actually happened

avg price 44.0%20 events20 snapshots

50–59¢58.3% actually happened

avg price 54.3%12 events12 snapshots

60–69¢80.0% actually happened

avg price 65.0%10 events10 snapshots

70–79¢77.8% actually happened

avg price 74.6%9 events9 snapshots

80–89¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 82.9%7 events7 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 95.0%6 events9 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.9%1.8%100281

10–19¢14.1%11.9%6167

20–29¢24.4%25.7%3435

30–39¢35.0%31.8%2122

40–49¢44.0%45.0%2020

50–59¢54.3%58.3%1212

60–69¢65.0%80.0%1010

70–79¢74.6%77.8%99

80–89¢82.9%100.0%77

90–99¢95.0%100.0%69