World Cup Spread

KXWCSPREAD · Sports

760 events1,130 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.9%1.8%100281

10–19¢14.1%11.9%6167

20–29¢24.4%25.7%3435

30–39¢35.0%31.8%2122

40–49¢44.0%45.0%2020

50–59¢54.3%58.3%1212

60–69¢65.0%80.0%1010

70–79¢74.6%77.8%99

80–89¢82.9%100.0%77

90–99¢95.0%100.0%69