World Cup Method of Victory

KXWCMOV · Sports

176 events335 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 11¢ resolved YES 5.2% of the time (k=54).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.7% actually happened

avg price 5.2%25 events74 snapshots

10–19¢4.9% actually happened

avg price 13.0%18 events41 snapshots

20–29¢15.0% actually happened

avg price 25.4%11 events20 snapshots

30–39¢57.1% actually happened

avg price 33.7%6 events7 snapshots

40–49¢37.5% actually happened

avg price 44.0%8 events8 snapshots

50–59¢83.3% actually happened

avg price 55.7%6 events6 snapshots

60–69¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 66.7%3 events3 snapshots

70–79¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 74.0%3 events3 snapshots

80–89¢75.0% actually happened

avg price 85.5%4 events4 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 90.0%2 events2 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢5.2%2.7%2574

10–19¢13.0%4.9%1841

20–29¢25.4%15.0%1120

30–39¢33.7%57.1%67

40–49¢44.0%37.5%88

50–59¢55.7%83.3%66

60–69¢66.7%66.7%33

70–79¢74.0%66.7%33

80–89¢85.5%75.0%44

90–99¢90.0%100.0%22