World Cup Goal

KXWCGOAL · Sports

807 events4,386 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 38¢ resolved YES 32.7% of the time (k=116).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.4% actually happened

avg price 4.0%100 events2,219 snapshots

10–19¢10.3% actually happened

avg price 13.6%99 events572 snapshots

20–29¢14.5% actually happened

avg price 23.9%93 events186 snapshots

30–39¢22.6% actually happened

avg price 33.3%63 events93 snapshots

40–49¢40.9% actually happened

avg price 43.1%37 events44 snapshots

50–59¢58.3% actually happened

avg price 53.7%12 events12 snapshots

60–69¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 63.2%4 events4 snapshots

70–79¢50.0% actually happened

avg price 71.0%2 events2 snapshots

80–89¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 80.0%1 events1 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 98.8%31 events41 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.0%2.4%1002,219

10–19¢13.6%10.3%99572

20–29¢23.9%14.5%93186

30–39¢33.3%22.6%6393

40–49¢43.1%40.9%3744

50–59¢53.7%58.3%1212

60–69¢63.2%100.0%44

70–79¢71.0%50.0%22

80–89¢80.0%0.0%11

90–99¢98.8%100.0%3141