World Cup First Goal

KXWCFIRSTGOAL · Sports

243 events1,724 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.8% actually happened

avg price 3.2%95 events1,478 snapshots

10–19¢3.7% actually happened

avg price 13.1%72 events163 snapshots

20–29¢24.2% actually happened

avg price 22.9%28 events33 snapshots

30–39¢53.8% actually happened

avg price 31.8%12 events13 snapshots

70–79¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 75.0%2 events2 snapshots

80–89¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 89.0%1 events1 snapshots

90–99¢92.6% actually happened

avg price 98.5%26 events27 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢3.2%2.8%951,478

10–19¢13.1%3.7%72163

20–29¢22.9%24.2%2833

30–39¢31.8%53.8%1213

70–79¢75.0%0.0%22

80–89¢89.0%0.0%11

90–99¢98.5%92.6%2627