World Cup First Goal

KXWCFIRSTGOAL · Sports

243 events1,724 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢3.2%2.8%951,478

10–19¢13.1%3.7%72163

20–29¢22.9%24.2%2833

30–39¢31.8%53.8%1213

70–79¢75.0%0.0%22

80–89¢89.0%0.0%11

90–99¢98.5%92.6%2627