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World Cup First Goal

KXWCFIRSTGOAL · Sports
243 events1,724 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢2.8% actually happened
avg price 3.2%95 events1,478 snapshots
10–19¢3.7% actually happened
avg price 13.1%72 events163 snapshots
20–29¢24.2% actually happened
avg price 22.9%28 events33 snapshots
30–39¢53.8% actually happened
avg price 31.8%12 events13 snapshots
70–79¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 75.0%2 events2 snapshots
80–89¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 89.0%1 events1 snapshots
90–99¢92.6% actually happened
avg price 98.5%26 events27 snapshots