World Cup Assists

KXWCAST · Sports

632 events3,198 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 37¢ resolved YES 14.3% of the time (k=55).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 96¢ resolved YES 87.2% of the time (k=35).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.8%2.7%1001,382

10–19¢13.5%9.4%100626

20–29¢23.3%12.0%81192

30–39¢33.1%16.1%3656

40–49¢44.2%11.8%1517

50–59¢54.0%0.0%11

60–69¢65.7%0.0%33

70–79¢72.5%0.0%22

80–89¢83.5%100.0%22

90–99¢98.0%91.4%3135