World Cup Assists

KXWCAST · Sports

632 events3,198 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 37¢ resolved YES 14.3% of the time (k=55).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 96¢ resolved YES 87.2% of the time (k=35).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.7% actually happened

avg price 4.8%100 events1,382 snapshots

10–19¢9.4% actually happened

avg price 13.5%100 events626 snapshots

20–29¢12.0% actually happened

avg price 23.3%81 events192 snapshots

30–39¢16.1% actually happened

avg price 33.1%36 events56 snapshots

40–49¢11.8% actually happened

avg price 44.2%15 events17 snapshots

50–59¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 54.0%1 events1 snapshots

60–69¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 65.7%3 events3 snapshots

70–79¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 72.5%2 events2 snapshots

80–89¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 83.5%2 events2 snapshots

90–99¢91.4% actually happened

avg price 98.0%31 events35 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.8%2.7%1001,382

10–19¢13.5%9.4%100626

20–29¢23.3%12.0%81192

30–39¢33.1%16.1%3656

40–49¢44.2%11.8%1517

50–59¢54.0%0.0%11

60–69¢65.7%0.0%33

70–79¢72.5%0.0%22

80–89¢83.5%100.0%22

90–99¢98.0%91.4%3135