UFC Fight

KXUFCFIGHT · Sports

474 events482 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 20¢ resolved YES 11.6% of the time (k=43).

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 79¢ resolved YES 88.2% of the time (k=51).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.0%0.0%22

10–19¢15.6%7.1%1414

20–29¢23.8%14.8%2727

30–39¢34.6%33.3%2727

40–49¢44.3%39.4%3333

50–59¢54.0%53.6%2528

60–69¢63.4%63.3%3030

70–79¢74.7%89.7%2929

80–89¢83.1%82.4%1717

90–99¢93.8%100.0%55