UFC Fight

KXUFCFIGHT · Sports

474 events482 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 20¢ resolved YES 11.6% of the time (k=43).

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 79¢ resolved YES 88.2% of the time (k=51).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 1.0%2 events2 snapshots

10–19¢7.1% actually happened

avg price 15.6%14 events14 snapshots

20–29¢14.8% actually happened

avg price 23.8%27 events27 snapshots

30–39¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 34.6%27 events27 snapshots

40–49¢39.4% actually happened

avg price 44.3%33 events33 snapshots

50–59¢53.6% actually happened

avg price 54.0%25 events28 snapshots

60–69¢63.3% actually happened

avg price 63.4%30 events30 snapshots

70–79¢89.7% actually happened

avg price 74.7%29 events29 snapshots

80–89¢82.4% actually happened

avg price 83.1%17 events17 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 93.8%5 events5 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.0%0.0%22

10–19¢15.6%7.1%1414

20–29¢23.8%14.8%2727

30–39¢34.6%33.3%2727

40–49¢44.3%39.4%3333

50–59¢54.0%53.6%2528

60–69¢63.4%63.3%3030

70–79¢74.7%89.7%2929

80–89¢83.1%82.4%1717

90–99¢93.8%100.0%55