Truflation US CPI Eggs Index

KXTRUFEGGS · Economics

75 events138 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 92¢ resolved YES 71.4% of the time (k=35).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢7.7% actually happened

avg price 2.6%16 events39 snapshots

10–19¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 10.7%3 events3 snapshots

20–29¢85.7% actually happened

avg price 22.7%6 events7 snapshots

30–39¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 33.2%3 events6 snapshots

40–49¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 43.4%4 events5 snapshots

50–59¢60.0% actually happened

avg price 54.2%5 events5 snapshots

60–69¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 64.0%3 events3 snapshots

70–79¢16.7% actually happened

avg price 74.7%9 events12 snapshots

80–89¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 84.8%5 events6 snapshots

90–99¢84.6% actually happened

avg price 96.2%21 events52 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.6%7.7%1639

10–19¢10.7%0.0%33

20–29¢22.7%85.7%67

30–39¢33.2%0.0%36

40–49¢43.4%0.0%45

50–59¢54.2%60.0%55

60–69¢64.0%100.0%33

70–79¢74.7%16.7%912

80–89¢84.8%66.7%56

90–99¢96.2%84.6%2152