Truflation EV

KXTRUEV · Economics

88 events381 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢1.9% actually happened

avg price 1.7%27 events154 snapshots

10–19¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 13.2%6 events6 snapshots

20–29¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 24.8%4 events4 snapshots

30–39¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 32.3%3 events3 snapshots

40–49¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 45.3%3 events3 snapshots

50–59¢20.0% actually happened

avg price 54.4%5 events5 snapshots

60–69¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 63.5%4 events4 snapshots

70–79¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 71.5%3 events4 snapshots

80–89¢71.4% actually happened

avg price 84.1%6 events7 snapshots

90–99¢97.9% actually happened

avg price 98.4%27 events191 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.7%1.9%27154

10–19¢13.2%33.3%66

20–29¢24.8%0.0%44

30–39¢32.3%33.3%33

40–49¢45.3%0.0%33

50–59¢54.4%20.0%55

60–69¢63.5%0.0%44

70–79¢71.5%100.0%34

80–89¢84.1%71.4%67

90–99¢98.4%97.9%27191