College Baseball Game

KXNCAABBGAME · Sports

2,154 events2,229 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 52¢ resolved YES 46.2% of the time (k=650).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 92¢ resolved YES 84.0% of the time (k=794).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢4.5% actually happened

avg price 2.9%447 events448 snapshots

10–19¢22.8% actually happened

avg price 14.4%79 events79 snapshots

20–29¢21.3% actually happened

avg price 25.0%75 events75 snapshots

30–39¢22.3% actually happened

avg price 35.3%121 events121 snapshots

40–49¢42.9% actually happened

avg price 45.1%166 events175 snapshots

50–59¢48.1% actually happened

avg price 54.2%156 events181 snapshots

60–69¢60.2% actually happened

avg price 65.3%207 events226 snapshots

70–79¢61.3% actually happened

avg price 74.5%107 events111 snapshots

80–89¢79.1% actually happened

avg price 85.7%163 events163 snapshots

90–99¢90.3% actually happened

avg price 97.6%524 events534 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.9%4.5%447448

10–19¢14.4%22.8%7979

20–29¢25.0%21.3%7575

30–39¢35.3%22.3%121121

40–49¢45.1%42.9%166175

50–59¢54.2%48.1%156181

60–69¢65.3%60.2%207226

70–79¢74.5%61.3%107111

80–89¢85.7%79.1%163163

90–99¢97.6%90.3%524534