Pro Basketball Player Steals

KXNBASTL · Sports

445 events1,101 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 49¢ resolved YES 34.6% of the time (k=91).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 90¢ resolved YES 66.8% of the time (k=73).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.5% actually happened

avg price 5.7%23 events40 snapshots

10–19¢9.0% actually happened

avg price 14.3%30 events111 snapshots

20–29¢25.0% actually happened

avg price 23.7%23 events44 snapshots

30–39¢14.0% actually happened

avg price 34.8%27 events57 snapshots

40–49¢26.1% actually happened

avg price 44.3%22 events46 snapshots

50–59¢51.9% actually happened

avg price 55.1%16 events27 snapshots

60–69¢53.4% actually happened

avg price 64.1%26 events58 snapshots

70–79¢52.4% actually happened

avg price 74.2%24 events42 snapshots

80–89¢37.9% actually happened

avg price 85.4%19 events29 snapshots

90–99¢78.4% actually happened

avg price 97.0%30 events125 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢5.7%2.5%2340

10–19¢14.3%9.0%30111

20–29¢23.7%25.0%2344

30–39¢34.8%14.0%2757

40–49¢44.3%26.1%2246

50–59¢55.1%51.9%1627

60–69¢64.1%53.4%2658

70–79¢74.2%52.4%2442

80–89¢85.4%37.9%1929

90–99¢97.0%78.4%30125