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Pro Basketball Spread

KXNBASPREAD · Sports
445 events2,485 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
Mid-priced contracts here resolved well above their price — historically underpriced.
Contracts averaging 46¢ resolved YES 56.7% of the time (k=116).
“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.
Contracts averaging 82¢ resolved YES 77.2% of the time (k=31).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢3.9% actually happened
avg price 3.6%31 events567 snapshots
10–19¢19.7% actually happened
avg price 13.9%30 events218 snapshots
20–29¢37.1% actually happened
avg price 24.1%30 events140 snapshots
30–39¢45.6% actually happened
avg price 34.0%31 events103 snapshots
40–49¢55.4% actually happened
avg price 44.3%31 events83 snapshots
50–59¢66.7% actually happened
avg price 54.5%28 events57 snapshots
60–69¢68.4% actually happened
avg price 64.3%26 events57 snapshots
70–79¢79.5% actually happened
avg price 74.4%17 events39 snapshots
80–89¢75.9% actually happened
avg price 84.6%10 events29 snapshots
90–99¢75.0% actually happened
avg price 93.1%4 events24 snapshots