Pro Basketball Spread

KXNBASPREAD · Sports

445 events2,485 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well above their price — historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 46¢ resolved YES 56.7% of the time (k=116).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 82¢ resolved YES 77.2% of the time (k=31).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢3.9% actually happened

avg price 3.6%31 events567 snapshots

10–19¢19.7% actually happened

avg price 13.9%30 events218 snapshots

20–29¢37.1% actually happened

avg price 24.1%30 events140 snapshots

30–39¢45.6% actually happened

avg price 34.0%31 events103 snapshots

40–49¢55.4% actually happened

avg price 44.3%31 events83 snapshots

50–59¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 54.5%28 events57 snapshots

60–69¢68.4% actually happened

avg price 64.3%26 events57 snapshots

70–79¢79.5% actually happened

avg price 74.4%17 events39 snapshots

80–89¢75.9% actually happened

avg price 84.6%10 events29 snapshots

90–99¢75.0% actually happened

avg price 93.1%4 events24 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢3.6%3.9%31567

10–19¢13.9%19.7%30218

20–29¢24.1%37.1%30140

30–39¢34.0%45.6%31103

40–49¢44.3%55.4%3183

50–59¢54.5%66.7%2857

60–69¢64.3%68.4%2657

70–79¢74.4%79.5%1739

80–89¢84.6%75.9%1029

90–99¢93.1%75.0%424