Pro Basketball Spread

KXNBASPREAD · Sports

445 events2,485 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well above their price — historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 46¢ resolved YES 56.7% of the time (k=116).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 82¢ resolved YES 77.2% of the time (k=31).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢3.6%3.9%31567

10–19¢13.9%19.7%30218

20–29¢24.1%37.1%30140

30–39¢34.0%45.6%31103

40–49¢44.3%55.4%3183

50–59¢54.5%66.7%2857

60–69¢64.3%68.4%2657

70–79¢74.4%79.5%1739

80–89¢84.6%75.9%1029

90–99¢93.1%75.0%424