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Pro Basketball Player Threes

KXNBA3PT · Sports
555 events1,951 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.
Contracts averaging 12¢ resolved YES 5.3% of the time (k=89).
Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.
Contracts averaging 47¢ resolved YES 38.2% of the time (k=107).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢2.1% actually happened
avg price 5.3%31 events238 snapshots
10–19¢3.6% actually happened
avg price 14.1%28 events168 snapshots
20–29¢16.0% actually happened
avg price 24.5%30 events100 snapshots
30–39¢18.1% actually happened
avg price 34.4%30 events94 snapshots
40–49¢31.5% actually happened
avg price 44.1%27 events73 snapshots
50–59¢53.8% actually happened
avg price 55.0%24 events52 snapshots
60–69¢66.1% actually happened
avg price 64.7%26 events56 snapshots
70–79¢87.8% actually happened
avg price 75.0%22 events49 snapshots
80–89¢90.0% actually happened
avg price 85.0%22 events30 snapshots
90–99¢93.8% actually happened
avg price 96.9%31 events130 snapshots