Pro Basketball Player Threes

KXNBA3PT · Sports

555 events1,951 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 12¢ resolved YES 5.3% of the time (k=89).

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 47¢ resolved YES 38.2% of the time (k=107).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.1% actually happened

avg price 5.3%31 events238 snapshots

10–19¢3.6% actually happened

avg price 14.1%28 events168 snapshots

20–29¢16.0% actually happened

avg price 24.5%30 events100 snapshots

30–39¢18.1% actually happened

avg price 34.4%30 events94 snapshots

40–49¢31.5% actually happened

avg price 44.1%27 events73 snapshots

50–59¢53.8% actually happened

avg price 55.0%24 events52 snapshots

60–69¢66.1% actually happened

avg price 64.7%26 events56 snapshots

70–79¢87.8% actually happened

avg price 75.0%22 events49 snapshots

80–89¢90.0% actually happened

avg price 85.0%22 events30 snapshots

90–99¢93.8% actually happened

avg price 96.9%31 events130 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢5.3%2.1%31238

10–19¢14.1%3.6%28168

20–29¢24.5%16.0%30100

30–39¢34.4%18.1%3094

40–49¢44.1%31.5%2773

50–59¢55.0%53.8%2452

60–69¢64.7%66.1%2656

70–79¢75.0%87.8%2249

80–89¢85.0%90.0%2230

90–99¢96.9%93.8%31130