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Pro Baseball Spread

KXMLBSPREAD · Sports
6,365 events10,517 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢4.1% actually happened
avg price 4.2%772 events2,024 snapshots
10–19¢13.7% actually happened
avg price 14.2%665 events1,371 snapshots
20–29¢24.2% actually happened
avg price 24.2%617 events922 snapshots
30–39¢35.5% actually happened
avg price 34.3%584 events648 snapshots
40–49¢47.1% actually happened
avg price 44.1%378 events401 snapshots
50–59¢56.8% actually happened
avg price 54.5%298 events310 snapshots
60–69¢65.2% actually happened
avg price 64.2%285 events293 snapshots
70–79¢80.9% actually happened
avg price 74.4%258 events288 snapshots
80–89¢86.5% actually happened
avg price 84.3%221 events289 snapshots
90–99¢86.0% actually happened
avg price 94.3%117 events264 snapshots