Pro Baseball Spread

KXMLBSPREAD · Sports

6,365 events10,517 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

This market has been well calibrated — prices roughly matched what happened.

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢4.1% actually happened

avg price 4.2%772 events2,024 snapshots

10–19¢13.7% actually happened

avg price 14.2%665 events1,371 snapshots

20–29¢24.2% actually happened

avg price 24.2%617 events922 snapshots

30–39¢35.5% actually happened

avg price 34.3%584 events648 snapshots

40–49¢47.1% actually happened

avg price 44.1%378 events401 snapshots

50–59¢56.8% actually happened

avg price 54.5%298 events310 snapshots

60–69¢65.2% actually happened

avg price 64.2%285 events293 snapshots

70–79¢80.9% actually happened

avg price 74.4%258 events288 snapshots

80–89¢86.5% actually happened

avg price 84.3%221 events289 snapshots

90–99¢86.0% actually happened

avg price 94.3%117 events264 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.2%4.1%7722,024

10–19¢14.2%13.7%6651,371

20–29¢24.2%24.2%617922

30–39¢34.3%35.5%584648

40–49¢44.1%47.1%378401

50–59¢54.5%56.8%298310

60–69¢64.2%65.2%285293

70–79¢74.4%80.9%258288

80–89¢84.3%86.5%221289

90–99¢94.3%86.0%117264