Pro Baseball Stolen Bases

KXMLBSB · Sports

605 events1,558 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 97¢ resolved YES 78.7% of the time (k=132).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢4.5% actually happened

avg price 6.5%190 events733 snapshots

10–19¢5.7% actually happened

avg price 12.9%176 events507 snapshots

20–29¢13.8% actually happened

avg price 23.6%86 events109 snapshots

30–39¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 33.2%15 events15 snapshots

40–49¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 40.0%1 events1 snapshots

50–59¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 51.5%2 events2 snapshots

60–69¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 67.3%3 events3 snapshots

70–79¢14.3% actually happened

avg price 76.9%7 events7 snapshots

80–89¢20.0% actually happened

avg price 85.5%10 events10 snapshots

90–99¢84.8% actually happened

avg price 98.7%115 events171 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢6.5%4.5%190733

10–19¢12.9%5.7%176507

20–29¢23.6%13.8%86109

30–39¢33.2%0.0%1515

40–49¢40.0%0.0%11

50–59¢51.5%0.0%22

60–69¢67.3%0.0%33

70–79¢76.9%14.3%77

80–89¢85.5%20.0%1010

90–99¢98.7%84.8%115171