Pro Baseball Outs Recorded

KXMLBOUTS · Sports

457 events517 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well above their price — historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 3¢ resolved YES 11.0% of the time (k=142).

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well above their price — historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 51¢ resolved YES 61.1% of the time (k=178).

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 95¢ resolved YES 89.4% of the time (k=95).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢8.5% actually happened

avg price 1.5%124 events153 snapshots

10–19¢25.0% actually happened

avg price 13.1%7 events8 snapshots

20–29¢36.4% actually happened

avg price 23.5%11 events11 snapshots

30–39¢53.3% actually happened

avg price 35.3%15 events15 snapshots

40–49¢55.1% actually happened

avg price 44.7%60 events69 snapshots

50–59¢66.2% actually happened

avg price 53.5%69 events71 snapshots

60–69¢65.7% actually happened

avg price 62.8%34 events35 snapshots

70–79¢70.0% actually happened

avg price 75.8%10 events10 snapshots

80–89¢87.5% actually happened

avg price 83.5%8 events8 snapshots

90–99¢91.9% actually happened

avg price 98.0%77 events86 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.5%8.5%124153

10–19¢13.1%25.0%78

20–29¢23.5%36.4%1111

30–39¢35.3%53.3%1515

40–49¢44.7%55.1%6069

50–59¢53.5%66.2%6971

60–69¢62.8%65.7%3435

70–79¢75.8%70.0%1010

80–89¢83.5%87.5%88

90–99¢98.0%91.9%7786