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Pro Baseball Home Runs

KXMLBHR · Sports
1,836 events15,144 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.
Contracts averaging 50¢ resolved YES 1.3% of the time (k=75).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢2.9% actually happened
avg price 4.2%559 events10,904 snapshots
10–19¢7.6% actually happened
avg price 12.3%500 events2,742 snapshots
20–29¢11.4% actually happened
avg price 22.7%83 events114 snapshots
30–39¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 33.8%19 events19 snapshots
40–49¢9.1% actually happened
avg price 45.6%11 events11 snapshots
50–59¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 54.9%30 events32 snapshots
60–69¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 64.7%15 events15 snapshots
70–79¢25.0% actually happened
avg price 75.3%8 events8 snapshots
80–89¢33.3% actually happened
avg price 85.3%3 events3 snapshots
90–99¢99.5% actually happened
avg price 99.0%404 events817 snapshots