Pro Baseball Home Runs

KXMLBHR · Sports

1,836 events15,144 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 50¢ resolved YES 1.3% of the time (k=75).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.2%2.9%55910,904

10–19¢12.3%7.6%5002,742

20–29¢22.7%11.4%83114

30–39¢33.8%0.0%1919

40–49¢45.6%9.1%1111

50–59¢54.9%0.0%3032

60–69¢64.7%0.0%1515

70–79¢75.3%25.0%88

80–89¢85.3%33.3%33

90–99¢99.0%99.5%404817