Pro Baseball Home Runs

KXMLBHR · Sports

1,836 events15,144 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 50¢ resolved YES 1.3% of the time (k=75).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢2.9% actually happened

avg price 4.2%559 events10,904 snapshots

10–19¢7.6% actually happened

avg price 12.3%500 events2,742 snapshots

20–29¢11.4% actually happened

avg price 22.7%83 events114 snapshots

30–39¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 33.8%19 events19 snapshots

40–49¢9.1% actually happened

avg price 45.6%11 events11 snapshots

50–59¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 54.9%30 events32 snapshots

60–69¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 64.7%15 events15 snapshots

70–79¢25.0% actually happened

avg price 75.3%8 events8 snapshots

80–89¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 85.3%3 events3 snapshots

90–99¢99.5% actually happened

avg price 99.0%404 events817 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢4.2%2.9%55910,904

10–19¢12.3%7.6%5002,742

20–29¢22.7%11.4%83114

30–39¢33.8%0.0%1919

40–49¢45.6%9.1%1111

50–59¢54.9%0.0%3032

60–69¢64.7%0.0%1515

70–79¢75.3%25.0%88

80–89¢85.3%33.3%33

90–99¢99.0%99.5%404817