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First 5 Innings Spread

KXMLBF5SPREAD · Sports
3,447 events4,738 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.
Contracts averaging 83¢ resolved YES 73.6% of the time (k=92).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢11.5% actually happened
avg price 5.2%186 events262 snapshots
10–19¢15.5% actually happened
avg price 15.5%731 events931 snapshots
20–29¢24.3% actually happened
avg price 24.3%722 events1,265 snapshots
30–39¢30.9% actually happened
avg price 33.4%597 events680 snapshots
40–49¢39.6% actually happened
avg price 43.5%158 events164 snapshots
50–59¢61.8% actually happened
avg price 54.7%72 events76 snapshots
60–69¢57.4% actually happened
avg price 65.1%53 events54 snapshots
70–79¢57.5% actually happened
avg price 74.0%39 events40 snapshots
80–89¢79.1% actually happened
avg price 84.9%34 events43 snapshots
90–99¢91.3% actually happened
avg price 94.9%19 events23 snapshots