First 5 Innings Spread

KXMLBF5SPREAD · Sports

3,447 events4,738 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 83¢ resolved YES 73.6% of the time (k=92).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢11.5% actually happened

avg price 5.2%186 events262 snapshots

10–19¢15.5% actually happened

avg price 15.5%731 events931 snapshots

20–29¢24.3% actually happened

avg price 24.3%722 events1,265 snapshots

30–39¢30.9% actually happened

avg price 33.4%597 events680 snapshots

40–49¢39.6% actually happened

avg price 43.5%158 events164 snapshots

50–59¢61.8% actually happened

avg price 54.7%72 events76 snapshots

60–69¢57.4% actually happened

avg price 65.1%53 events54 snapshots

70–79¢57.5% actually happened

avg price 74.0%39 events40 snapshots

80–89¢79.1% actually happened

avg price 84.9%34 events43 snapshots

90–99¢91.3% actually happened

avg price 94.9%19 events23 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢5.2%11.5%186262

10–19¢15.5%15.5%731931

20–29¢24.3%24.3%7221,265

30–39¢33.4%30.9%597680

40–49¢43.5%39.6%158164

50–59¢54.7%61.8%7276

60–69¢65.1%57.4%5354

70–79¢74.0%57.5%3940

80–89¢84.9%79.1%3443

90–99¢94.9%91.3%1923