Lowest Temperature San Francisco

KXLOWTSFO · Climate and Weather

390 events789 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 93¢ resolved YES 98.4% of the time (k=61).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 1.6%66 events301 snapshots

10–19¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 12.7%11 events11 snapshots

20–29¢14.3% actually happened

avg price 24.3%7 events7 snapshots

30–39¢22.2% actually happened

avg price 34.6%8 events9 snapshots

40–49¢0.0% actually happened

avg price 41.0%1 events1 snapshots

50–59¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 53.7%2 events3 snapshots

60–69¢33.3% actually happened

avg price 68.0%3 events3 snapshots

70–79¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 75.5%4 events4 snapshots

80–89¢88.9% actually happened

avg price 84.3%9 events9 snapshots

90–99¢100.0% actually happened

avg price 96.4%48 events48 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢1.6%0.0%66301

10–19¢12.7%0.0%1111

20–29¢24.3%14.3%77

30–39¢34.6%22.2%89

40–49¢41.0%0.0%11

50–59¢53.7%66.7%23

60–69¢68.0%33.3%33

70–79¢75.5%100.0%44

80–89¢84.3%88.9%99

90–99¢96.4%100.0%4848