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Lowest Temperature San Francisco

KXLOWTSFO · Climate and Weather
390 events789 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.
Contracts averaging 93¢ resolved YES 98.4% of the time (k=61).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 1.6%66 events301 snapshots
10–19¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 12.7%11 events11 snapshots
20–29¢14.3% actually happened
avg price 24.3%7 events7 snapshots
30–39¢22.2% actually happened
avg price 34.6%8 events9 snapshots
40–49¢0.0% actually happened
avg price 41.0%1 events1 snapshots
50–59¢66.7% actually happened
avg price 53.7%2 events3 snapshots
60–69¢33.3% actually happened
avg price 68.0%3 events3 snapshots
70–79¢100.0% actually happened
avg price 75.5%4 events4 snapshots
80–89¢88.9% actually happened
avg price 84.3%9 events9 snapshots
90–99¢100.0% actually happened
avg price 96.4%48 events48 snapshots