Dota 2 Game

KXDOTA2GAME · Sports

1,139 events1,183 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 10¢ resolved YES 4.0% of the time (k=255).

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 88¢ resolved YES 93.9% of the time (k=245).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢1.3% actually happened

avg price 2.5%135 events151 snapshots

10–19¢5.9% actually happened

avg price 14.6%67 events68 snapshots

20–29¢9.3% actually happened

avg price 24.1%53 events54 snapshots

30–39¢20.6% actually happened

avg price 34.0%62 events63 snapshots

40–49¢43.4% actually happened

avg price 44.5%75 events76 snapshots

50–59¢55.1% actually happened

avg price 54.6%59 events69 snapshots

60–69¢61.9% actually happened

avg price 63.9%63 events63 snapshots

70–79¢85.5% actually happened

avg price 75.2%69 events69 snapshots

80–89¢94.6% actually happened

avg price 84.3%56 events56 snapshots

90–99¢98.3% actually happened

avg price 96.6%120 events120 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.5%1.3%135151

10–19¢14.6%5.9%6768

20–29¢24.1%9.3%5354

30–39¢34.0%20.6%6263

40–49¢44.5%43.4%7576

50–59¢54.6%55.1%5969

60–69¢63.9%61.9%6363

70–79¢75.2%85.5%6969

80–89¢84.3%94.6%5656

90–99¢96.6%98.3%120120