Dota 2 Game

KXDOTA2GAME · Sports

1,139 events1,183 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Cheap contracts here resolved well below their price — longshot buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 10¢ resolved YES 4.0% of the time (k=255).

“Sure things” here delivered even more than priced in — favorites were historically underpriced.

Contracts averaging 88¢ resolved YES 93.9% of the time (k=245).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.5%1.3%135151

10–19¢14.6%5.9%6768

20–29¢24.1%9.3%5354

30–39¢34.0%20.6%6263

40–49¢44.5%43.4%7576

50–59¢54.6%55.1%5969

60–69¢63.9%61.9%6363

70–79¢75.2%85.5%6969

80–89¢84.3%94.6%5656

90–99¢96.6%98.3%120120