ATO Game Spread

KXATPGSPREAD · Sports

2,102 events2,279 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 82¢ resolved YES 66.8% of the time (k=237).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢8.8% actually happened

avg price 2.9%180 events227 snapshots

10–19¢16.9% actually happened

avg price 14.2%116 events124 snapshots

20–29¢22.6% actually happened

avg price 24.7%170 events186 snapshots

30–39¢34.2% actually happened

avg price 34.4%186 events199 snapshots

40–49¢52.3% actually happened

avg price 45.2%250 events283 snapshots

50–59¢57.2% actually happened

avg price 54.0%221 events229 snapshots

60–69¢57.8% actually happened

avg price 64.2%142 events147 snapshots

70–79¢66.7% actually happened

avg price 74.4%118 events123 snapshots

80–89¢71.2% actually happened

avg price 84.4%61 events66 snapshots

90–99¢62.5% actually happened

avg price 96.0%58 events64 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.9%8.8%180227

10–19¢14.2%16.9%116124

20–29¢24.7%22.6%170186

30–39¢34.4%34.2%186199

40–49¢45.2%52.3%250283

50–59¢54.0%57.2%221229

60–69¢64.2%57.8%142147

70–79¢74.4%66.7%118123

80–89¢84.4%71.2%6166

90–99¢96.0%62.5%5864