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ATO Game Spread

KXATPGSPREAD · Sports
2,102 events2,279 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.
Contracts averaging 82¢ resolved YES 66.8% of the time (k=237).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢8.8% actually happened
avg price 2.9%180 events227 snapshots
10–19¢16.9% actually happened
avg price 14.2%116 events124 snapshots
20–29¢22.6% actually happened
avg price 24.7%170 events186 snapshots
30–39¢34.2% actually happened
avg price 34.4%186 events199 snapshots
40–49¢52.3% actually happened
avg price 45.2%250 events283 snapshots
50–59¢57.2% actually happened
avg price 54.0%221 events229 snapshots
60–69¢57.8% actually happened
avg price 64.2%142 events147 snapshots
70–79¢66.7% actually happened
avg price 74.4%118 events123 snapshots
80–89¢71.2% actually happened
avg price 84.4%61 events66 snapshots
90–99¢62.5% actually happened
avg price 96.0%58 events64 snapshots