ATP Exact Match Score

KXATPEXACTMATCH · Sports

3,683 events5,674 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

“Sure things” here underdelivered — favorites resolved below their price.

Contracts averaging 85¢ resolved YES 52.4% of the time (k=138).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢4.2% actually happened

avg price 2.8%556 events1,111 snapshots

10–19¢15.4% actually happened

avg price 14.4%500 events842 snapshots

20–29¢21.0% actually happened

avg price 23.9%465 events619 snapshots

30–39¢39.0% actually happened

avg price 33.9%218 events251 snapshots

40–49¢46.0% actually happened

avg price 44.4%214 events237 snapshots

50–59¢49.7% actually happened

avg price 53.8%179 events199 snapshots

60–69¢58.0% actually happened

avg price 64.3%109 events112 snapshots

70–79¢58.2% actually happened

avg price 75.3%53 events55 snapshots

80–89¢45.2% actually happened

avg price 84.0%41 events42 snapshots

90–99¢52.2% actually happened

avg price 96.4%44 events46 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.8%4.2%5561,111

10–19¢14.4%15.4%500842

20–29¢23.9%21.0%465619

30–39¢33.9%39.0%218251

40–49¢44.4%46.0%214237

50–59¢53.8%49.7%179199

60–69¢64.3%58.0%109112

70–79¢75.3%58.2%5355

80–89¢84.0%45.2%4142

90–99¢96.4%52.2%4446