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US gas price up

KXAAAGASD · Economics
309 events1,085 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026
Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.
Contracts averaging 48¢ resolved YES 36.5% of the time (k=62).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close
Market underpricesMarket overprices
How often it actually happened
What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail
1–9¢0.4% actually happened
avg price 2.5%66 events467 snapshots
10–19¢6.8% actually happened
avg price 13.6%38 events44 snapshots
20–29¢18.5% actually happened
avg price 25.0%24 events27 snapshots
30–39¢25.0% actually happened
avg price 35.0%20 events20 snapshots
40–49¢21.4% actually happened
avg price 43.2%14 events14 snapshots
50–59¢60.0% actually happened
avg price 55.3%14 events15 snapshots
60–69¢42.9% actually happened
avg price 64.4%14 events14 snapshots
70–79¢69.2% actually happened
avg price 74.0%25 events26 snapshots
80–89¢87.9% actually happened
avg price 84.2%28 events33 snapshots
90–99¢98.8% actually happened
avg price 97.6%66 events425 snapshots