US gas price up

KXAAAGASD · Economics

309 events1,085 snapshotsCoverage since May 2026

Mid-priced contracts here resolved well below their price — buyers historically overpaid.

Contracts averaging 48¢ resolved YES 36.5% of the time (k=62).

Price vs. actual outcome

Final hour before close

Market underpricesMarket overprices

How often it actually happened

What the market charged

Series views omit confidence intervals where samples are thin — hollow dots have fewer than 10 events. Every point shows its counts on hover.

Price bands in detail

1–9¢0.4% actually happened

avg price 2.5%66 events467 snapshots

10–19¢6.8% actually happened

avg price 13.6%38 events44 snapshots

20–29¢18.5% actually happened

avg price 25.0%24 events27 snapshots

30–39¢25.0% actually happened

avg price 35.0%20 events20 snapshots

40–49¢21.4% actually happened

avg price 43.2%14 events14 snapshots

50–59¢60.0% actually happened

avg price 55.3%14 events15 snapshots

60–69¢42.9% actually happened

avg price 64.4%14 events14 snapshots

70–79¢69.2% actually happened

avg price 74.0%25 events26 snapshots

80–89¢87.9% actually happened

avg price 84.2%28 events33 snapshots

90–99¢98.8% actually happened

avg price 97.6%66 events425 snapshots

Price bandAvg priceActually happenedEventsSnapshots

1–9¢2.5%0.4%66467

10–19¢13.6%6.8%3844

20–29¢25.0%18.5%2427

30–39¢35.0%25.0%2020

40–49¢43.2%21.4%1414

50–59¢55.3%60.0%1415

60–69¢64.4%42.9%1414

70–79¢74.0%69.2%2526

80–89¢84.2%87.9%2833

90–99¢97.6%98.8%66425